Ten Key Insights Into The 2015 Federal Election

(Wonkish)

10. A weaker NDP than polls depicted from the very beginning

Before and during the first half of the election campaign, nearly all opinion polls placed the NDP in first place across Canada. This was particularly deceiving given their huge advance in Quebec where they were polling between 43% and 52%. In reality they were much weaker in the other provinces and territories except for B.C. Even within many of the provinces, the overall provincial scores were misleading, with close battles in and around major cities and some rural ridings.

Should you vote strategically for LPC, NDP or CPC in your riding?

Anybody But Conservative strategic voting can be summed up as:

1.   If Cons have no chance of winning, vote for whomever you want

2.   If Cons are sure to win, vote for whomever you want

3.   If Cons are close to being beaten by only 1 party, vote for that party

4.   If in a 3-4 way race, decide & vote for who has best chance to defeat the Cons

The problem is mostly with points 1 & 4.

Major Strategic Mistakes May Still Lead To Lower Voter Turnout

A 70% greater voter turnout than in 2011 at advanced polls suggests that the downward trend could be reversed next Monday, encouraged by a competitive race and multiple get-out-the-vote drives. That however is no guarantee as the last election demonstrated. Additionally, there are some major developments working in the opposite direction and discouraging electors this time around – and apathy is not one of them.

Election launch noon-hour national interview on CBC News Network