The Liberal government’s
change in strategic approach regarding its fight against the militant group
Islamic State (also known as ISIS, ISIL or Daesh), as announced on Monday, is
not only defendable but also desirable.
Every military expert
interviewed since the launch of the air campaign by the U.S.-led coalition 18
months ago has stated unequivocally that, while airstrikes are helpful, “boots
on the
ground” are indispensable in regaining lost territory and ultimately
defeating the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
It makes sense then for
the coalition to first and foremost equip, train, advise and assist Iraqi
troops, Sunni militia fighters, Peshmerga forces and Free Syrian Army rebels
fighting Daesh, especially since not a single neighbouring country or coalition
member has so far engaged their own ground forces in direct combat, and rightly
so.
If withdrawing Canada’s
six CF-18s and using the estimated $243 million to $351 million a year saved in
incremental expenses for such purposes was justifiable prior to last fall’s
terrorist attacks claimed by ISIS, it is doubly so now that the bombing tempo
has picked up to the point of running out of credible targets.
Allied forces are
dropping 30 per cent more ordinance per sortie now than they did on average in
2014-2015, amounting to over 30,000 bombing runs so far. In addition, France
has brought into the theatre its flagship carrier Charles de Gaulle, tripling
its aerial firepower following the Paris carnage that left 130 dead.
And Russia has entered
the air war with a vengeance with hundreds of cruise missiles, long-range
bombers, and MiGs, some of which is targeted at ISIS strongholds in Syria,
after the downing of Metrojet flight 9268 over the Sinai that killed all 224
people aboard last fall.
However, there are other
overarching reasons for refocusing the diplomatic and military effort on the
local forces. The fight against ISIS must be led, and be seen to be led, by
people from the area, not Westerners.
First of all, Iraqis and
Syrians from all ethnic and religious groups must be the ones finding the
political compromises necessary to live peacefully together, and then moving to
implement and defend them. The mistreatment and massacre of Sunni Muslims in
Syria and under former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki in Iraq following the
American withdrawal in 2011, explains in good measure why ISIS was able to
recruit former Sunni military commanders under Saddam Hussein and has been
tolerated by some in the Sunni communities in both countries.
Secondly, holding
anti-ISIS strategy meetings that include only the Western powers of the “U.S.-led” coalition — such as the meeting in Paris, held last month, to which Canada wasn’t
invited — plays to the jihadist false narrative of a clash between Christianity
and Judaism, on the one hand, and Islam on the other, between Arabs and
Europeans, indeed between civilizations, and acts as a powerful recruitment
tool.
Finally, focusing on the
CF-18s and other military aspects neglects the equally if not more crucial
political and humanitarian fronts.
Again, nearly all experts
agree that a military solution alone will not defeat ISIS and other jihadists
in the region and abroad. Intelligence gathering, countering extremist
propaganda and recruitment, reaching a ceasefire and regime change (or at least
a change in government) in Syria and strengthening Iraqi governance, equity and
security for all its diverse communities are indispensable.
Canada has the diplomatic
standing and ability to contribute substantially in these areas, bilaterally
and in co-operation with like-minded allies, both above and below the radar.
In addition, its enhanced
humanitarian contribution will go a long way in filling the minimum of US$9
billion in aid needed in 2016 alone for refugees and internally displaced
persons in the region who have had little hope and help since the start of the
Syrian conflict in April 2011, forcing many to flee to Europe and elsewhere.
The good news is that the
coalition’s overall strategy seems to be working, albeit slowly. ISIS is
presently losing more territory than it is gaining in Iraq and Syria. Canada’s
new policy will speed up these positive developments and ought to be supported.
Robert M. David teaches at the School of International
Development and Global Studies, University of Ottawa. He was a federal Liberal
candidate in 2009 and 2011. The opinions expressed in this article are entirely
his own.
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