To Be or Not to Be in Afghanistan?

The Heads of State and Heads of Government meeting at the NATO Summit in Lisbon on Saturday took the decision to cease its combat role in Afghanistan in 2014, if security permits, and provide military training henceforth. Responsibility for security is to be passed on progressively to Afghan forces, with complete control returned to the country by the end of that year, according to the wishes of Afghan president Hamid Karzai. However, fundamental questions remain unanswered:

1.    Do the Afghan government, parliament and civil society moderates really want us there until 2014, given their growing complaints? It’s their hide if the Taliban overtake the capital, so if they think they can hold the fort and do better on their own, backed by our outside support, shouldn’t we pack up our duffel bags?

2.   Why are major European countries, which arguably are more vulnerable to terrorist attack than Canada, not willing to put up a proportional number of troops and take the fight to the Taliban? Are they simply free riders or have they valid criticism of overall strategy that we should heed?

3.   Given that the next 911, if any, can just as well be planned from Pakistan (where Bin Laden is operating), Kashmir, Yemen, Somalia, Iran, or a flat in Bali, Madrid, or London, as other terrorist attacks have, and that the most effective and immediate counterterrorism measures are good intelligence and police work, as has also been shown since 911, do we need to control the Afghan countryside from the ground? Is it not sufficient to try to correctly identify terrorist training camps and threats, wherever they are found, and deal with them more effectively than in the past from the inside, using national forces, or the outside, using appropriate means?

4.   Is there a realistic chance that this new military mission will be successful, given the present strategy, government support levels, regional context, and timeline? And what is the definition of that success? Is it “simply” local troops trained and motivated enough to defend the government, keep Al-Qaeda out and stop the Taliban from regaining power by force once we all leave? If more than that, what does it include and who decides?

5.     Is a negotiated settlement with “moderate” Taliban needed to reach even this limited goal of a “good enough” Afghanistan? Is that likely, are compromises necessary, and do we support it?

6.     Why didn’t large-scale training of Afghan troops begin at the outset? We had nine years to do so, yet we are still sending Canadian recruits with only eight-months training to fight in Kandahar! Note that after three decades of war against the Soviets and each other, our Afghans allies know how to fight guerrilla war there better than most. The bigger problem now lies in their split into pro and anti Karzai factions. How is the government going to recruit, motivate, and retain sufficient soldiers in this context? And will they respect the rights of prisoners and civilians after we train them?

7.  Democratization using foreign military force has rarely succeeded in the past. Where it has worked, as in Germany, Italy and Japan, it took millions of soldiers, trillions of dollars, complete control of the country and neighbouring states, and decades to accomplish – conditions not present nor apparently possible anymore. Hence, is it not better to support democratic forces within countries from afar and let citizens struggle for and implement their own democracy?

8.   A final question that goes beyond the singular Afghan case. Would Canada and its allies also achieve more by putting greater resources into good governance, development and peace-building strategies, rather than in additional military armament that has proven less than effective in achieving such results, in countries and regions of great concern?

If nothing else, we owe it to our troops, their families and the Afghan people to discuss the options and get it right. A teaching moment indeed.

Robert M. David teaches international development and globalization at the University of Ottawa and Concordia University.